Since our first case was reported in Arizona back in January, we have been working to protect our populations that are most severely impacted by the disease and preparing our healthcare system for a surge in cases. Mitigating the spread of COVID-19, as well as responding to the impacts of the virus, remains our highest priority. The projections are based on Census 2000 and were producedSince December 2019, when we first heard about cases of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, the Arizona public health system has been closely monitoring COVID-19 on an international, national, and local level. The projections are available by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for each year from Jto July 1, 2050. Census Bureau’s national projections are of the resident population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and net international migration).
In its early stages, this model was less optimistic than our initial Arizona projection, predicting tens of thousands of hospitalizations and deaths with our healthcare system becoming overloaded at the end of May. It was built with input from experts at Google, Stanford University, Georgetown University, and other public health and analytic experts. Interventions Model, is a data platform that projects COVID infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across the United States. This is well under our available resources and current hospital capacity.The COVIDActNow.org model, otherwise known as the U.S. As of today, April 22, this model forecasts that Arizona has already passed our peak of resource utilization and only requires 424 inpatient beds, 103 ICU beds, and 92 ventilators*.
Ihme State By State Projections Update Received On
The initial data we received 2 weeks ago from our Arizona team showed an estimated need for hospitalization of 15,000 individuals and 7,000 ICU beds needed. It produced various scenarios that gave us a baseline estimate, with high and low ranges of potential hospitalization and ICU needs of Arizonans. This model was extensive, taking into account our current data, mitigation strategies, and potential summer effects on viral transmission. This group of experts has worked on the COVID-19 response with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Currently, it is showing that Arizona is predicted to be able to meet any COVID-19 healthcare requirements with our current available capacity and our current mitigation strategies in place*.Over the past several weeks, ADHS has partnered with experts from Arizona State University and the University of Arizona to develop a more targeted, Arizona-specific model, with the most recent update received on Tuesday, April 21.
This is why we are still working on developing plans for alternate care sites, such as the one at St. We want to make sure every Arizonan can access the level of care they need at the time they need it. While most of the models show that we currently have the capacity to meet the healthcare demands for Arizona, it is the responsibility of public health to plan for the worst-case scenario. All of our efforts to date have decreased the transmission of COVID-19 in our community and helped our healthcare system increase resource capacity to meet Arizona’s healthcare needs.
Moving forward, the best course of action is to continue using all of our real-time, Arizona specific data to assess the health of our healthcare system and evaluate the trend of our cases to make decisions that are best for Arizona.* These electronic models may change by day, so the data presented on the website may not match the numbers posted in this blog. While the models may try to predict what lies ahead, they are simply predictions. As the data evolves, so will our plans.
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